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It’s looking more than likely that we’ll see a recession in the next year, and Americans are preparing themselves by taking steps like delaying major purchases, allocating more of their income to savings, and staying in jobs they don’t love. Another thing they’re not doing? Getting Botox. And that’s bad news for AbbVie.
AbbVie, one of the biggest drug manufacturers in the US, brought Botox into its medical aesthetics portfolio—which also includes the popular dermal filler Juvederm—in 2020, when it bought rival drugmaker Allergan for $63 billion.
AbbVie CEO Richard Gonzalez said during the company’s Oct. 28 earnings call that the company expects the aesthetics business to take a hard hit in 2023 as recession fears cause consumers to be more cautious with their spending.
“Based on all the data we’ve been observing, especially in the US, with both the consumer-confidence index and real personal consumption expenditures trending down and continued high inflation, these factors are putting pressure on consumers’s discretionary spending,” Gonzalez said.
AbbVie lowered its 2022 full-year forecast for its aesthetics business by $600 million, down to $5.3 billion. After the earnings call, AbbVie’s stock fell 4.3%.
Through the third quarter of 2022, Botox has brought in $1.97 billion for the aesthetics business. The third quarter saw $637 million in cosmetic Botox sales, down from an expected $640 million. Gonzalez said he doesn’t think the hit on sales will last long, though.
“As consumer confidence improves, we would once again expect the market growth to accelerate. Our aesthetics portfolio experienced a rapid and sustained recovery following the 2008, 2009 recession,” Gonzalez said.
But Botox also faces a new competitor, called Daxxify, which just got FDA approval in September. Made by Revance Therapeutics, the drug may last longer: In clinical trials, Daxxify injections lasted six to nine months, while Botox injections typically last three months.