Medicaid cuts could put 888,000 jobs on life support in 2026

Proposed Medicaid cuts could lead to the loss of about 888,000 jobs in 2026, according to a March 25 report from the Commonwealth Fund, an independent research group.

The House of Representatives on Feb. 25 adopted a budget resolution that called for the Energy and Commerce Committee—which oversees Medicaid and Medicare—to cut a minimum of $880 billion from its budget over the next 10 years.

Experts have previously told Healthcare Brew they are concerned cuts to Medicaid could lead to job losses.

Now, the Commonwealth Fund has come up with a number, predicting cuts could lead to 477,000+ healthcare job losses—including roles at hospitals, nursing homes, pharmacies, and clinics—and 411,000+ other jobs. Fewer people with jobs, the researchers wrote, means fewer people with money to spend on other businesses, and fewer sales means less tax revenue.

Zooming out. Medicaid, the primary source of health coverage for people with low income or disabilities, covers about 83 million people according to KFF. In FY 2023, Medicaid spending totaled $880 billion, of which the federal government contributed about 69% (607 billion).

The House resolution doesn’t specifically call for cutting Medicaid. Congressional leaders and President Trump have repeatedly said that cuts to Medicaid benefits won’t happen and the administration will only cut abuse, waste, and fraud.

But experts from KFF and other organizations, including the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, say cuts this big aren’t realistic without reducing Medicaid benefits.

The Commonwealth researchers’ calculations use the hypothetical scenario where the full $880 billion in savings will come from cuts to Medicaid funding, with “broad-based cuts that are spread proportionately across all states and evenly over the decade.”

The report also projects that failing to extend the enhanced health insurance premium tax credits—set to expire after December 2025—could lead to 286,000 additional jobs lost in 2026.